Market Overview

Gold eases and dollar steadies as markets await US jobs report after soft sales 

ADFX Team

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD finished the session at 5022.93, down 36.68 (-0.73%) on the day, after trading a 90.77 range, equal to 1.79% of the open. The market opened at 5059.61 and quickly pressed lower, setting the session low at 4987.88 at 01:12, briefly dipping below the 5,000 round level and printing in the 4980 handle. Price then recovered through the morning and extended higher into mid‑afternoon, reaching the day’s high at 5078.65 at 16:33, before easing back into the close. The settlement came in the lower half of the intraday range, leaving the close closer to the session low than the high. Intraday flow showed an early downside probe, a subsequent rally that eclipsed the open and established the peak late in the US afternoon window, and a late pullback that kept spot above 5,000 by the bell. On higher timeframes, the daily 20‑day simple moving average sits at 4934.86, with spot closing above that reference, while the daily lower Bollinger Band is at 4484.3. The 10‑day low stands at 4402.82. On the H4 timeframe, MACD printed 27.21. Overall, the session featured an early test of a major round number, a recovery to a late‑day high, and a finish below the midpoint of the range, with price action remaining above the daily moving average and well clear of the cited multi‑day downside markers.

AUDUSD 
AUDUSD traded lower over the 00:00–07:14 session, settling at 0.70736 for a loss of 0.00177, or 0.25%, from the 0.70913 open. Price marked its high early at 00:29 at 0.7093 and remained beneath the 0.7100 handle throughout, before edging down into a session low of 0.70713 at 07:07. The intraday range measured 0.00217, equivalent to 0.31% of the open and roughly a quarter of the current 14‑day ATR on the daily timeframe at 0.00847, indicating a contained move relative to recent daily volatility. The close was near the lower end of the day’s range after a modest early uptick gave way to a gradual drift toward the 0.7070 area into the session’s final hour. From a broader technical perspective, spot remained comfortably above the H4 21‑EMA at 0.70272 and the D1 20‑SMA at 0.69029, while the daily MACD signal line was recorded at 0.01. On the intraday backdrop, the H1 20‑SMA stood at 0.70758, and the market finished fractionally below that reference level. Overall, the structure featured an early high followed by steady softening into the close, with trade holding below 0.7100 and probing levels just above 0.7070 by the end of the window.

GBPUSD 
GBPUSD ended the 00:00–07:17 session at 1.37, down 0.001 (-0.07%) from the open, after traversing a 0.0025 range (about 25 pips), which was 0.18% of the opening level and roughly 23% of the 14‑day daily ATR of 0.0109. The session high was recorded at 01:03 and the low at 02:49, defining a clear early downswing from the initial lift to the subsequent trough before a modest recovery into the finish. Price remained below the 1.37 figure throughout, with the intraday high failing to reach that round number and the low holding nearly 0.0025 beneath the peak. The close sat in the lower half of the range at 43.5% of distance from the low, just under the session midpoint, indicating the rebound into the close did not reclaim the ground lost after the early high. Structurally, trade opened near the eventual high, posted the day’s peak within the first hour, fell to the session low before 03:00, and then consolidated into the close without retesting the high or breaching the low. On a higher‑timeframe read, session volatility was muted relative to the recent daily amplitude, as the realized range amounted to less than one quarter of the D1 ATR. No tick volume figures were provided. The intraday profile left the pair capped below 1.37, with session parameters anchored by the 01:03 high and 02:49 low and a finish closer to the lower half of the day’s distribution. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

U.S. consumer data softened: retail sales were flat month over month at 0.0 percent, easing from 0.6 percent previously and under the 0.1 percent forecast, while core retail sales also printed 0.0 percent versus 0.5 percent prior and 0.2 percent expected; in Japan, BoJ L Money Stock rose 2.0 percent year over year, matching the forecast and just below 2.1 percent previously. The next 24 hours center on the U.S. labor report at 15:30 server time: Nonfarm Payrolls are expected at 89.0 after 50.0 previously, and the unemployment rate is seen easing to 4.2 percent from 4.4 percent. If payrolls exceed expectations while unemployment ticks lower, tightening expectations may firm. No other major data share the time slot, raising focus on these prints; a sharper move in either direction could spark cross-asset volatility around release time. 

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