Market Overview

Gold climbs and stocks advance after strong ADP ahead US jobless claims 

ADFX Team

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD advanced over the session, closing at 5139.41 for a gain of 51.1 or 1.0%. Price opened at 5088.31 and briefly pressed to the session low of 5084.74 at 01:02 before recovering. The rally extended into the afternoon, reaching the high at 5206.09 at 14:04, a move that carried trade above the 5200 figure after trading below 5100 early on. The intraday range spanned 121.35, equivalent to 2.38% of the open. By the close, the metal had eased back from the peak and settled just under the session’s midpoint at 5145.41, leaving it 66.7 below the high and 54.7 above the low, a finish in the lower half of the day’s range while still net higher on the day. Notable round levels were in play throughout, with price oscillating around 5100 in the first hour and later printing above 5200 before backing off into the close. On the daily timeframe, price action remained contained between Bollinger bands at 5325.58 (upper) and 4853.04 (lower), with the close nearer to the upper band; the session high also stayed beneath the upper band by about 119.5. The daily RSI14 stood at 56.18. In a broader context, XAUUSD remained below the 10‑day high at 5419.28. Overall, the day featured an early dip, a steady advance to a mid-session peak, and a late pullback that left the market higher on the day but off its best levels. 

DJ30 
DJ30 closed at 48,787.48, up 329.5 points or 0.68% on the session, with a 649.3-point intraday span that equated to 1.34% of the opening level and about 104.3% of the daily ATR. The index opened at 48,457.98 and moved lower early, registering the session trough at 48,245.13 at 08:16, around the 48,240 handle. From there it advanced across successive 100-point handles, lifting through the 48,500–48,800 zones and reaching the day’s peak at 48,894.43 at 18:47, just below the 48,900 handle. It settled slightly beneath that high, leaving the close toward the upper end of the day’s range after ranging 649 points high to low. The sequence of a morning low followed by a late-session high framed a session that traversed multiple round-number levels, with the final print holding above 48,700 and below 48,900. On the higher timeframes, H4 RSI (14) stood at 46.5 by the close, while the D1 MACD was negative at -119.32. The day’s profile placed the close well above the midpoint of the range, while the early dip marked the only visit to the 48,200s before the index worked higher into the evening. No tick volume metrics were available. High was recorded at 18:47 server time and low at 08:16, consistent with a session that set its extremes in the morning and late in the day. 

AUDUSD 
AUDUSD covered a 0.00598 range, about 0.85% of the open, between a session high at 0.70451 at 01:15 and a low at 0.69853 at 03:34, and it settled at 0.70115. That close was 0.00155 lower on the day, a move of -0.221% from the 0.70270 open. Price action began near 0.7030 and pushed to the high just under 0.7050 by 01:15, then retraced, slipping beneath the 0.7000 round figure to post the session trough at 03:34, before stabilizing into the finish above 0.7010. By the close, the pair sat in the lower half of the day’s range, about 0.00262 above the low and 0.00336 below the high, with the intraday profile showing an early uptick followed by a more extended downswing and a modest late recovery. The 0.7050 area was not sustained on the topside, while 0.7000 was briefly undercut and then reclaimed before the session ended. On the H1 timeframe, the 21-period EMA stood at 0.70341; price traded above it during the run to the high but finished below it. On the daily chart, spot remained below the 20-day SMA at 0.70659 into the close. Momentum gauges were mixed across higher frames, with the daily MACD signal at 0.01 and the H4 MACD reading approximately -0.0. Overall, the session closed below its midpoint, with a full excursion of nearly 60 pips and a settlement closer to the lower extreme after a brief sub-0.7000 print. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

A stronger-than-expected US private payrolls report set the tone: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change came in at 63.0, well above both the prior 22.0 and the 11.0 forecast, while the ISM Non‑Manufacturing Prices Paid index eased to 63.0 from 66.6, below the 65.5 consensus, signaling some moderation in input cost pressures; earlier, Australia’s GDP grew 2.6 percent year over year (previous -75.0; forecast -75.9) and 0.8 percent quarter over quarter. Looking ahead, the focus is narrow but market‑relevant: at 13:30 server time, US Initial Jobless Claims are due, with the previous reading at 212.0 and a 222.0 forecast; a higher‑than‑forecast print would suggest softer labor demand, which can temper expectations for policy firmness. At 17:00, ECB President Lagarde speaks, with remarks monitored for any color on the inflation path and balance sheet normalization. The claims release can trigger quick swings in front‑end US yields and the dollar if the headline deviates materially from expectations, while Lagarde’s appearance may fine‑tune rate‑path assumptions but lacks a numerical consensus to anchor market reaction. 

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