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Dollar firms on upbeat claims as ECB holds and euro weakens 

ADFX 팀

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
Gold (XAUUSD) spent the session moving from the 4100s into the 4000s, finishing at 4049.0, down 55.64 or 1.356% from the 4104.64 open. Price marked the day’s high at 4141.03 at 04:27 before sliding to the low at 4040.11 at 17:09, leaving a 100.92-point intraday span, equal to 2.46% of the open. The close was near the lower end of that range. The path was front‑loaded by an early push through the 4140 area, then a persistent retreat that crossed the 4100 handle and pressed into the 40xx handle, with only a modest rebound into the bell from the 4040s. Round-number areas were active: 4100 gave way after the early high, while 4050 and the low near 4040 framed the late session. On higher timeframes, the daily 21‑EMA sat at 4087.71, leaving the close beneath it after opening above it, and the entire session tracked below the daily 50‑SMA at 4230.84. The daily MACD signal was negative at -61.17, and H4 RSI(14) printed 44.73, below the 50 midpoint. By the close, price had retraced the early advance and settled close to session lows, with the day’s range encompassing a full 100‑handle move from the 41xxs into the 40xxs. No multi‑day extremes were flagged, and there was no tick‑volume context provided. Overall, the tape concluded with price anchored near the session floor after testing and losing the 4100 figure and probing the mid‑4000s into late trade. 

AUDUSD 
AUDUSD traded a contained session, spanning 0.00387 or 0.55% of the open, with a low at 00:51 server time of 0.69816 and a high at 07:13 of 0.70203, before settling at 11:15 at 0.70000. The pair opened at 0.69942 and finished up 0.00058 on the day, a gain of 0.083%. Price first slipped from the open to print the session low within the first hour, then advanced steadily into the European morning to briefly top the 0.7020 area, and eased back into the 0.7000 handle by the close. The finish sat near the middle of the day’s range and marginally above the 0.7000 round figure, with both the intraday high and low occurring away from the session end. The round levels at 0.7000 and the nearby 0.7020 marker framed the latter part of trade after the early dip below 0.6990. On the higher timeframes, the close at 0.70000 stands above the H4 50-period SMA at 0.69839 and above the D1 20-period SMA at 0.69506. The H4 RSI(14) read 49.58, offering little directional skew, while the 10-day low at 0.6912 remained untested and well below the session’s extremes. In sum, the period featured an early probe lower, a mid-session push to the day’s peak, and a return to the 0.7000 figure into the bell, with the market maintaining a relatively tight intraday profile in the context of the recent daily backdrop. 

EURUSD 
EURUSD fell into the close, settling at 1.13695 for a loss of 0.00391 (-0.343%) on the day. The session opened at 1.14086 and first pushed higher, printing the high at 1.14351 at 07:33, before sliding through the afternoon to the low at 1.13633 at 17:20. The pair finished 0.00062 above that trough, leaving the close near the bottom of the intraday range. Total range was 0.00718, or 0.63% of the open, and tracked at 151.2% of the D1 ATR, marking a relatively expanded day. Price action featured an early test above the 1.1400 handle, while later trade moved down into the mid‑1.13s; 1.1300 was not reached. By the close the session had established new 5‑day and 10‑day lows. In the higher‑timeframe backdrop, the finish remained below the D1 EMA21 at 1.14246 and also below the D1 SMA50 at 1.14981, placing spot under both of these daily moving averages. The intraday structure was one‑way after the morning peak: a steady descent from the 07:33 high into the 17:20 low, followed by only a modest bounce into the bell, which left the settlement in the lower decile of the day’s range. No tick‑volume data were available for this session. Overall, the day captured a 71.8‑pip span, started with a brief lift above 1.1400, and ended with price anchored near 1.137 after marking fresh multi‑day lows. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

A sharper-than-expected drop in U.S. jobless claims and an on-hold ECB punctuated the last day’s releases: Initial Jobless Claims fell to 187,000, from 208,000 and versus a 215,000 forecast, while the European Central Bank kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.25 percent, the same as previously; Australia’s unemployment rate was steady at 4.4 percent, matching the prior and better than the 4.5 percent consensus. Looking ahead, Japan’s inflation data are due at 02:30: CPI excluding food and energy is expected at 1.7 percent year over year after 1.8 previously, and Core CPI is seen at 1.2 percent year over year, down from 1.4. Together, these prints will be scrutinized for momentum in underlying price pressures; if CPI lands above forecast, expectations for tighter policy may firm. At 17:00, U.S. New Home Sales are projected at 0.55, compared with 0.58 previously. Both releases have clear directional cues for rates and FX; near the 02:30 Japan CPI release, short-term volatility is possible. 

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