Market Overview

Aussie Climbs, Yen Weakens Ahead of CPI & Retail Data

ADFX Team

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD added 34.78 (+0.95%) on Monday, settling at 3679.0 after a 58.95 trading span, equivalent to 1.62% of the open. The session opened at 3644.22, dipped early to 3626.67 at 04:12 GMT, then advanced through the balance of the day to register the high at 3685.62 at 19:34 GMT. The close was 6.6 below the peak and near the top of the day’s range. Price action stayed within the 3600 handle throughout, with the early low holding above 3600 and the settlement finishing 21 points below the 3700 round number. The intraday structure was defined by a morning low set in the first few hours and a late-day high, leaving the market closing firmly in the upper quadrant of the range. On the higher timeframes, the contract ended above the H4 21-EMA at 3648.5, by roughly 30.5 points. On the daily chart, the MACD signal line stands at 66.29, while spot remains well above the lower Bollinger Band at 3271.71. The 19:34 print established new 5-day and 10-day highs. Overall, the session featured a contained climb within the 3600s, a single push to the day’s extreme into the US afternoon, and a finish close to that high, with no test of sub-3600 levels and the 3700 figure remaining untraded into the close. 

(XAUUSD H1) 

AUDUSD 
AUDUSD advanced over the session, settling at 0.66642 after trading between 0.66305 and 0.66742. The intraday high was set at 21:34 GMT and the low printed at 00:59 GMT. From the 0.66331 open, price briefly undercut the open to establish the day’s low early in the session, then worked higher into the New York evening to register the peak, with the close holding near the top of the range. The day’s net move was up 0.00311, a gain of 0.469%, while the range measured 0.00437, about 0.66% of the opening level and 89% of the 14‑day daily ATR of 0.00491. The high marked fresh 5‑day and 10‑day highs, underscoring the session’s extension versus recent ranges. Structurally, price respected the early low for the remainder of the session and built successive higher intraday swing levels into the late‑day high, leaving little retracement into the close. On higher timeframes, H4 RSI14 stood at 55.37 by the close, indicating momentum aligned slightly above its midpoint without entering traditional overbought or oversold zones. With the session concluding close to its peak and well above the open, the day finished firmly skewed toward the upper end of the established range, while overall volatility stayed marginally below its recent daily average on the ATR framework. No tick volume data were available for additional context. 

(AUDUSD H1) 

USDJPY 
USDJPY set a new 5‑day and 10‑day low at 147.23 at 16:01 GMT and finished at 147.34, down 0.17 (-0.12%) on the session. The pair opened at 147.52 and posted its high early at 147.76 at 01:00 GMT, then eased within a 0.53 range (0.36% of the open), staying entirely in the 147 handle and never testing 148.00. Price held above 147.00 throughout, with the close sitting in the lower quarter of the day’s range. The session structure was front‑loaded with the high in the first hour, followed by a progression to the intraday trough in the late European/early US afternoon before a modest bounce into the close. Compared with higher‑timeframe volatility, the realized range equated to 49.9% of the current D1 ATR. On the daily backdrop, the market closed below the D1 Bollinger midline at 147.48 and below the 50‑day simple moving average at 147.64; the open began just above the Bollinger midline and slipped beneath both references by the close. The day’s levels clustered around half‑figure pivots, with 147.50 giving way after the early high near 147.75 and the low forming near 147.25. By the close, the pair remained centered in the 147s and beneath both the D1 SMA50 and Bollinger midline, while the fresh multi‑session low marked the most notable print of the day’s run. 

(USDJPY H1) 

Over the past 24 hours, no major economic data was released. Looking ahead to the next 24 hours, attention centers on the 15:30 server time data window: Canada reports headline CPI month over month, expected to rise 0.3 percent after 0.3 percent previously, alongside Canada’s core CPI month over month, forecast at 0.1 percent following 0.1 percent prior. At the same time, the United States releases retail sales month over month, with a forecast of a 0.3 percent decline after a 0.5 percent increase previously. While the Canadian inflation prints are expected to be steady, any upside surprise in CPI could reinforce sticky-price concerns and complicate the Bank of Canada’s easing calculus. Traders should be aware that simultaneous North American releases can concentrate liquidity and headline risk, potentially increasing short-term volatility around the 15:30 time slot. No major speeches or policy meetings are scheduled in this window. 

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