Market Overview

Markets Mixed as Gold Steadies, Aussie Strengthens Ahead of UK GDP

ADFX Team

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD slipped on the session, settling at 3633.57, down 6.96 or 0.191% from the 3640.53 open, after trading a 35.95 range that equated to 0.99% of the open. Price action was anchored around the 3640 handle, with the session high at 3649.12 printed at 04:30 GMT, before a downswing to the low at 3613.17 at 15:30 GMT and a partial rebound into the close. The finish landed in the upper half of the day’s span, with the close positioned at 56.7% of the intraday range from low to high. The sequence featured an early push into the 3640s from the open, a mid-session extension lower that undercut 3620, and stabilization into the final hours without retesting the session peak. On higher timeframes, spot held above the H4 50-period simple moving average at 3585.9 and remained north of the D1 20-day simple moving average at 3480.5, while the H4 RSI14 at 45.0 sat below its midline. By the close, price was also above the H4 SMA50 buffer by roughly 47.7 points and maintained distance from the D1 SMA20, suggesting the day’s pullback stayed within a broader up-in-price context relative to these averages. The 3640 handle featured prominently, with both the open and the early-session high occurring in that area, while the intraday low near 3613 marked the deepest test of the session before the late recovery into the upper half of the range. 

(XAUUSD H4) 


USDJPY 
USDJPY slipped on the session, closing at 147.18, down 0.27 (-0.19%) from an open at 147.45. Price action spanned 1.18, or 0.8% of the open, setting the day’s high at 148.16 at 15:30 GMT before falling to the low at 146.98 at 19:11 GMT. The pair finished 0.20 above the low and well below the high, placing the close nearer the lower end of the intraday range. Trading stayed within the 140s handle throughout; the session topped above 148.00 while the downside printed below 147.00. The sequence progressed from an early- to mid-session push to the peak, followed by a move lower into the evening and a close inside the lower quartile of the day’s extremes. On the higher timeframes, the close remained beneath the D1 20-day SMA at 147.56 and the D1 21-day EMA at 147.55; the market also opened below these references and did not reclaim them by the close. The day’s realized range of 1.18 compared with a 14-day ATR of 1.07. Relative to round-number references, the close stood 2.82 below the next 10-figure. By the end of trading, USDJPY was contained within the prior 10-handle band and had faded from mid-afternoon highs to finish closer to the session floor, with the late-day settlement underscoring the failure to hold above 148.00 or to base above the nearby daily moving averages. 

(USDJPY H4) 

AUDUSD 
AUDUSD advanced through the session, closing at 0.66554, up 0.00436 or 0.659% from the 0.66118 open. Price traversed a 0.00772 range, about 1.17% of the open, setting a session low at 0.65872 at 15:30 GMT before rising to a late high of 0.66644 at 23:28 GMT and finishing near the top of the day’s span. The intraday path featured an early dip through 0.6600, followed by a recovery that reclaimed 0.6600, pushed beyond 0.6650, and approached the 0.6670 area without exceeding it. By the close, the pair had registered fresh 5‑day and 10‑day highs, with the late-session peak establishing the new mark for both short-term windows. On the higher timeframes, the spot remained above its 20‑day simple moving average, which stood at 0.65306, underscoring that the latest settlement held comfortably above that reference. Momentum signals were muted, with the daily MACD at the zero line and the H4 MACD signal also near zero, while no extreme readings were indicated on these measures. Structurally, the close near the session high and well above mid-range highlighted a day dominated by late strength after the earlier undercut of 0.6600. No tick volume or daily ATR context was provided, but the delivered range and timing show a low established mid-session and a high printed into the final half hour of trade in GMT time. 

(AUDUSD H4) 

In the past 24 hours, US Initial Jobless Claims rose to 263, compared with 237 previously and a consensus of 235, pointing to some softening at the margin in labor-market flow data. The US CPI report was listed at the same time but the feed provided no new actual readings: the all-items CPI index was seen with a prior level of 322.13 and a forecast of 322.96, Core CPI non-seasonally adjusted month over month carried a prior of 0.2, and CPI year over year had a prior of 2.7 percent with a 2.9 percent forecast; however, no actual figures were included for these measures. Looking ahead over the next 24 hours, the UK publishes GDP at 09:00 server time: monthly GDP is expected to print 0.1 percent month over month after minus 0.3 percent previously, while the three-month over three-month measure follows with a prior of 0.7 percent (no market forecast provided in the schedule). A stronger-than-expected UK GDP outturn could modestly reduce the case for near-term Bank of England easing by signaling firmer activity. Traders should be aware of potential volatility around the GDP release, particularly in GBP rates and FX, given the sensitivity of policy expectations to incremental growth data. No additional high-importance data are scheduled in this window, and there are no listed central bank speeches in the feed to guide markets before the UK print. 

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