Global oil prices remain under pressure near four-year lows, weighed down by ongoing concerns over global trade uncertainty and speculation surrounding a potential production increase by OPEC+ at its upcoming May 31 meeting.

Supply Outlook Weighs on Oil Prices

Oil prices have faced strong selling pressure throughout Q1 2025, a trend that deepened in April after the U.S. implemented its “reciprocal tariff” policy, sparking renewed trade tensions. This led to a sharp breakdown below multi-year support level.

While oil rebounded over the past two weeks—thanks to improved sentiment following a temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade dispute—the recovery remains fragile. Persistent uncertainty around global trade continues to cap upside potential.

Adding to the cautious outlook, markets are now closely watching the May 31 OPEC+ meeting, amid reports that the alliance is considering a production increase of approximately 411,000 barrels per day starting in July.

This potential supply boost has kept oil prices struggling below key resistance levels, as traders weigh the risk of an oversupplied market against still-sluggish demand.

Oil Outlook: Risks to Monitor

Looking ahead, several key risk factors could continue to weigh on global oil prices:

• OPEC+ Production Policy: If OPEC+ proceeds with its proposed output increase while demand remains uncertain due to global trade concerns, the market could face an oversupply scenario. This would likely add further downside pressure on prices.
• Global Economic Growth: Ongoing trade disputes—particularly between the U.S. and major economies such as China and the EU—continue to pose a threat to global economic growth. Weakened economic activity may translate into lower oil consumption, exacerbating demand-side weakness.

Technical Outlook for Oil

Both major crude oil benchmarks—WTI and Brent—are currently trading below key price levels that had served as major support zones during the post-pandemic recovery. The breakdown of these structural supports signals a significant shift in market dynamics and offers critical levels for traders to monitor.

WTI USOIL Technical Outlook

On the daily chart, WTI crude (USOIL) has broken below its long-term support zone, which now acts as resistance around the $62–$66 per barrel range. Price action remains capped beneath this resistance, reinforcing a bearish technical bias. 

Several technical indicators and chart patterns suggest the downside momentum is likely to persist unless a strong catalyst reverses the trend.

Brent UKOIL Technical Outlook

A similar technical structure is seen in Brent crude. Prices remain pressured below the $66–$70 per barrel zone, which previously acted as a key support and now functions as a resistance range. The inability to reclaim this level highlights continued bearish pressure.

Quick Summary on the Oil Market

Oil prices remain under pressure near four-year lows, driven by renewed global trade tensions and speculation around a potential OPEC+ production increase. Although a brief rebound followed the U.S.-China trade truce, upside remains limited amid a fragile demand outlook.

Both Brent and WTI continue to trade below key post-pandemic support zones, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The risk of oversupply, coupled with ongoing economic uncertainty, points to a downside bias ahead of the May 31 OPEC+ meeting.

Unless the meeting outcome provides a strong bullish catalyst, the broader fundamental and technical outlook remains tilted to the downside. Technically, the bearish view will likely persist unless oil prices can reclaim and sustain above their former support levels.