Tensions in the Middle East took a dramatic turn on Monday after U.S. President Trump announced a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, following nearly two weeks of intense military confrontation.
The ceasefire—reportedly brokered through Qatar—came after a series of retaliatory missile and drone strikes that had destabilized the region and rattled global financial markets over the past two weeks.
Ceasefire Likely, But Still Unconfirmed
While President Trump publicly declared that a ceasefire had been reached, neither Iran nor Israel has formally confirmed the agreement. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran would halt its attacks only if Israel ceased its airstrikes.
“As of now, there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations,” Araghchi posted on social media.
“However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 a.m. Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards.”
Although no formal agreement has been signed, markets interpreted these statements as signs of a mutual intent to de-escalate the conflict.
Oil & Gold Tumble on Ceasefire Optimism
Despite the absence of an official ceasefire confirmation, markets responded swiftly to the easing geopolitical tensions. Crude oil prices plunged over 10% on Tuesday morning as traders unwound risk premiums tied to the conflict. Brent crude dropped below $70 per barrel, while WTI returned to pre-conflict levels.
Gold also saw a modest dip, retreating from last week’s highs as safe-haven demand softened. While short-term geopolitical risk appears to have eased, broader macroeconomic concerns—such as inflation and trade uncertainty—continue to provide underlying support for the precious metal.
Brent & WTI Outlook: Key Support Levels in Focus
WTI Crude (USOIL)
WTI saw a sharp pullback to the $66 level following ceasefire optimism between Israel and Iran, effectively unwinding the conflict-driven risk premium.
Notably, this $66 per barrel zone has acted as a major technical support level since 2021, marking a historically significant threshold for price stability over the past four years.
Brent Crude (UKOIL)
Brent Crude also tumbled below the $70 mark, mirroring the decline in WTI. The $70 level has similarly functioned as a key psychological and technical support area for Brent in recent years.
While the ceasefire development has disrupted the recent bullish momentum, both oil benchmarks are now testing long-established support zones. Given that the ceasefire remains unconfirmed and geopolitical risks still linger, a short-term rebound from these levels cannot be ruled out.
Unless we see a decisive break down below $66 for WTI and $70 for Brent, these levels are likely to act as near-term support.
As markets continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, oil prices may remain sensitive and range-bound in the short term, with upward bias preserved in the case where the major support level in play.
Gold: Supported by Broader Macro Uncertainty
Although gold experienced a modest pullback amid easing geopolitical tensions, the downside has so far remained limited.
The precious metal continues to find support from broader macroeconomic risks—particularly the uncertainty surrounding the expiration of the 90-day tariff pause under the Trump administration, as well as looming U.S. fiscal challenges.
From a technical standpoint, the $3,330 level continues to serve as a critical support zone, helping to anchor prices even during risk-on shifts. The current uptrend channel remains intact, reinforcing gold’s underlying bullish structure in the medium term.
Unless a decisive break below the $3,330 support occurs, gold is likely to remain well-bid, especially if fresh concerns around tariffs, inflation, or U.S. fiscal policy resurface.