Market Recap
XAUUSD
XAUUSD closed at 4922.08, down 169.13 or 3.322% on the session, after opening at 5091.21. Price printed the high at 5099.96 at 01:02, effectively touching the 5100 handle, before sliding through 5000 and marking the low at 4878.62 at 18:29, a 5‑day low. The intraday range spanned 221.34, equal to 4.35% of the open, and the session crossed 10 handles. The close was positioned in the lower portion of the day’s range, finishing above 4900 after briefly trading beneath it, while remaining well below the earlier 5000 area. The sequence ran from an early-session high set within minutes of the open to a late-session low, followed by a modest rebound into the bell. On the higher timeframes, the settlement came below the 20‑day simple moving average at 4972.14 and below the H1 21‑EMA at 5007.47, while holding above the 21‑day EMA at 4905.51. Price remained below the D1 upper Bollinger band at 5365.36. Into the close, XAUUSD sat nearer the day’s low than its high, with the late recovery leaving it just above 4900 but still under the 20‑day mean and the intraday 21‑EMA. The day’s profile featured an early test of 5100, a sustained move through the 5000 figure, and a probe under 4900 before stabilizing, encapsulating a broad session range that set a fresh 5‑day trough.
USDJPY
USDJPY traced a two-way session that ultimately settled lower, closing at 152.71, down 0.52 (-0.34%) from an open at 153.23. Price first extended lower, marking the session trough at 152.26 at 05:39, which also set both a 5‑day and 10‑day low, before recovering to the day’s high of 153.75 at 14:56 and then easing back into the close. The intraday span was 1.49 yen, about 0.97% of the open and roughly 98.9% of the D1 ATR, with the finish positioned in the lower third of the range. Through the day, the pair traded on both sides of the 153.00 figure, briefly exceeding 153.50 on the push to the high, while staying above 152.00 as the early low formed. On higher timeframes, the H4 RSI stood at 40.6 into the close. Price remained beneath the H4 50‑period SMA near 155.41 and below the D1 21‑period EMA around 155.26. The sequence featured a downward move from the open into the early European hours, a rebound that carried into the afternoon high, and a softer late session that left the close below the session midpoint and below the open. By the end of trade, USDJPY had retraced a portion of the intraday bounce, with the close nearer to the session low than the high, while the day’s range aligned closely with its recent average as indicated by the D1 ATR reference.
Economic Calendar Recap & Preview
US data over the past day came in softer than forecast: Initial Jobless Claims rose to 227k (prior 231k; forecast 204k), Existing Home Sales slipped to an annualized 3.91 million (prior 4.13 million; forecast 4.10 million), and the U.S. 30‑year bond auction stopped at a high yield of 4.75 percent versus 4.83 percent previously. Looking ahead, focus centers on U.S. inflation at 15:30 server time: headline CPI month over month is expected at 0.2 percent after 0.3, core CPI month over month is seen at 0.1 percent after 0.2, and the headline CPI year over year rate is anticipated to ease to 2.5 percent from 2.7. The core CPI not seasonally adjusted month over month is also due at 15:30, following 0.0 previously. A higher-than-forecast CPI would tend to firm tightening expectations. Given the importance of these prints for the policy outlook, a brief bout of volatility around the release is possible across rates, FX, and equities.