Market Overview

Gold rallies and Aussie firms after RBA hike ahead of ADP and ISM 

ADFX Team

Market Recap 

XAUUSD 
XAUUSD ended the session higher, settling at 4,946.45 after posting a high of 4,993.87 at 18:39 and a low of 4,665.96 at 01:00. The day opened at 4,672.25 and closed up 274.20, a gain of 5.87%. Price traversed a 327.91-point range, equivalent to 7.02% of the open, with the low set immediately at the start and the high arriving later in the evening, indicating a low-before-high sequence. The close was in the upper end of the day’s span, finishing 47.42 points below the peak. Round-number levels featured through the session: the market rebounded from below 4,700 after the early dip, advanced through 4,900, and reached 4,993.87, leaving the 5,000 mark untraded. On the hourly backdrop, the close stood above the H1 20-period simple moving average at 4,899.25. From a broader H4 lens, price finished below the H4 50-period simple moving average at 5,058.62, while the H4 MACD signal remained negative at -76.91. The session stayed comfortably above the 5-day low at 4,402.82, with no fresh multi-day extremes recorded. By the close, the market had retraced little from the late-session highs, preserving most of the day’s advance and leaving the session profile skewed toward the top of the range. 

EURUSD 
EURUSD traded within a contained early-European session on 2026-02-03, opening at 1.18 and closing at 1.18 for a gain of 0.20%. Price set the session low at 1.18 at 00:01 server time before advancing to the high of 1.18 at 06:22, with the sequence of extremes forming low before high. The intraday span measured 0.29% of the open, and the close was positioned near the top of the day’s range at about 90% by the session end at 08:14. The action centered on the 1.18 round figure, with dips early in Asia stabilizing and subsequent trade pushing into the upper end of the band ahead of the European open window. The close left price parked close to the session high, indicating session-end demand concentrated toward the upper quartile of the range. From a higher-timeframe perspective, the H4 21-period EMA sat near 1.18, while the D1 Bollinger midline was also close to 1.18, framing the session within nearby reference levels. On the multi-day map, the recent 5-day low was registered near 1.18, and the session stayed above that marker throughout. Overall, the period featured an early probe lower followed by an orderly climb into the high, with no further extension beyond 06:22 and consolidation into the close near the day’s upper boundary. 

AUDUSD 
AUDUSD ended the 00:00–08:12 session at 0.70, up 0.0068 on the day, a gain of 0.98% from the 0.69 open. The session range was 0.0092, equal to 1.32% of the opening level. Price set the intraday low at 0.69 at 00:20, shortly after the session began, and then advanced, with the 06:08 print marking the day’s high at 0.70. Trading moved through the 0.70 figure during the ascent, and by the session end the pair retained most of the advance, closing near the upper end of the day’s range. The close was achieved without revisiting the early low, leaving the session characterized by an early downside probe followed by a sustained move higher into the high and a finish away from the midpoint. From a higher‑timeframe context, reference levels included the D1 20‑period simple moving average near 0.68 and the H4 21‑period exponential moving average around 0.70. On the multi‑day map, the five‑day low stood at 0.69, which remained untested after the initial dip. Round‑number activity centered on the 0.70 handle, which was engaged ahead of the session high and remained relevant into the close. No tick‑volume data or daily ATR comparison was available for this session. Overall, the pair progressed from an early trough to a late-session close close to the day’s peak, with the 0.70 area featuring prominently in both the intraday high and the final print. 

Economic Calendar Recap & Preview 

Markets digested policy and labor updates over the past day: the RBA lifted its cash rate to 3.85 percent from 3.60, and New Zealand’s employment rose 0.5 percent quarter over quarter, beating a -0.5 forecast and improving from 0.0 previously. Ahead, the focus turns to inflation and U.S. activity data. At 12:00 server time, euro area CPI year over year is expected to edge up to 2.0 percent after 1.9 previously. At 15:15, the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change is forecast at 7.0, down from 41.0 prior; stronger-than-expected private hiring can firm expectations for labor market momentum. The U.S. ISM Non‑Manufacturing PMI follows at 17:00, seen easing to 51.8 from 54.4, a level still consistent with modest expansion in services. At 17:30, EIA crude oil inventories are expected at -1.01 after a -2.29 prior draw. Headline risk may produce short‑term volatility around the ADP release at 15:15, especially as markets calibrate expectations for broader payrolls and growth. 

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